Is a snowier winter in store for Kentucky?

Kentucky looks to be headed toward a warmer-than-normal winter, though snowfall predictions remain tricky for several reasons, including a weak La Niña episode expected to unfold between November and January. In the short term, the weather in Lexington this week is expected to be mostly sunny and warm, though there is a strong chance of showers moving in Wednesday night throughout the day Thursday. 

     Preliminary data shows Kentucky is experiencing a warmer-than-normal November. 

     Whether you love the snow or dread it, here’s this year’s winter outlook, including what to know about La Niña and how it may affect Kentucky winter weather. 

     WHAT’S THE 2024-25 WINTER OUTLOOK FOR KENTUCKY? The latest available three-month outlook, issued by the Climate Prediction Center Oct. 17 (see page 2), shows Kentucky leaning toward above-normal temperatures between November and January.

     For the Bluegrass State, that translates to a 33 to 40% chance of above-normal temperatures during that period. So while it’s not a guarantee, it does represent a tilt toward an overall warmer winter for Kentucky.

As for precipitation, there isn’t a strong tilt in either direction, with below- or above-normal precipitation equally likely for the Bluegrass State, per the CPC outlook.

     As explained by the National Weather Service in Louisville, a weak and brief La Niña event is favored to emerge this fall, and it has a 75% chance of persisting between November and January. La Niña, Spanish for “the girl,” is a climate phenomenon caused by cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. When this massive, powerful ocean experiences swings in sea surface temperatures, it can disrupt weather worldwide. For the U.S., a La Niña typically means warmer, drier weather across the country’s Sun Belt, while the northern tier experiences cool and wet weather. That’s not likely to be welcome news for the central and southern Plains regions of the U.S., where drought is expected to worsen as a result.

      That said, drought conditions are most likely to improve or disappear altogether across the Ohio Valley, which includes Kentucky, per the NWS outlook.

     El Niño, Spanish for “the boy,” is La Niña’s opposite and reverses the two in the continental U.S. (cool, wet weather in the South and warm, dry weather in the North). While the southern and northern halves of the country generally tilt in one direction over the other during a La Niña or El Niño event, Kentucky sits roughly between these two extremes. This is partly what makes seasonal snowfall predictions difficult. 

     WILL KENTUCKY SEE SNOW THIS COMING WINTER? To get snow, two highly variable factors have to come together in just the right way: temperature and precipitation. 

     Seasonal snowfall amounts as part of a snow forecast generally aren’t predictable more than a week in advance. Given the usual caveats and the special effect of a La Niña event this winter, we posed the question to the NWS in Louisville. 

     While it’s difficult to have high confidence in a snowfall outlook for this winter, there is a slight chance of a snowier-than-usual one due to the weak La Niña, per NWS research. “A local study has suggested that when a weak La Niña is in place, the Ohio Valley tends to see a slightly snowier than normal winter (though this signal is not particularly robust),” Tom Reaugh, lead forecaster for the NWS in Louisville, wrote the Herald-Leader via email last week. If Kentucky does see a heavy snowfall this winter, January is the most likely month for it, given that “climatologically, December and February tend to see normal to slightly below normal snowfall, while January leans above normal during weak La Niña winters,” Reaugh wrote. Still, those are just general signals, Reaugh pointed out, and not necessarily predictive.